Sunday, July 18, 2010
This blog is now hosted fully on ellinwoodweather.com
I no longer have the need to embed this blog on my home page, so you can now visit http://ellinwoodweather.com/ directly to read blog updates and see new content!
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: July 13
Some nice thermal instability and veering winds will be in place over the Mid-Atlantic today, allowing for storms to fire up easily. 2% TOR risk in E MD, E PA, DE, NJ and S NY will keep everyone's eyes glued to the radar today.
Cloud cover will be a major issue in determining instability today. Some thick OVC over W MD right now... VA/WV mtns are mostly sunny... cloud deck trying to break up in E PA and E MD/DE.
Shear profile is MUCH better in the northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but overall storm coverage will likely be better over WV/VA today.
Convective Mode(s):
- Multicell
- MCS
Chase locations...
- SE PA (go for gold!)
- C VA (go for silver!)
- DELMARVA (late addition!)
Chance of chasing: 95%
Cloud cover will be a major issue in determining instability today. Some thick OVC over W MD right now... VA/WV mtns are mostly sunny... cloud deck trying to break up in E PA and E MD/DE.
Shear profile is MUCH better in the northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but overall storm coverage will likely be better over WV/VA today.
Convective Mode(s):
- Multicell
- MCS
Chase locations...
- C VA (go for silver!)
- DELMARVA (late addition!)
Chance of chasing: 95%
Sunday, July 11, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 11-17
Highlights:
Stagnant Southeast - High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the Southeast in the warmer weather, with a chance of showers and storms every day.
Wet in the East - A series of slow-moving systems will keep the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast under the risk for rain and thunderstorms through most of the week.
High and dry in the West - A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep most of the West warm and dry throughout the week. Pop-up showers and storms will continue along the southern Rockies.
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Discussion:
Low pressure systems will continue to track along the northern U.S. and southern Canada this week as two ridges of high pressure, one in the West and one in the Southeast, keep things warm for most of the country. The weather pattern across the nation will be very slow to chance this week as jet activity remains relatively quiet and UL energy stays north of the U.S.
The Tropics should be quiet this week (and next week), but there's always the slight possibility of something popping up that none of the models have been able to pick up on yet.
tl;dr - What you see Monday is likely what you'll see the next day, and the next day, and the next, etc. etc.
Stagnant Southeast - High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the Southeast in the warmer weather, with a chance of showers and storms every day.
Wet in the East - A series of slow-moving systems will keep the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast under the risk for rain and thunderstorms through most of the week.
High and dry in the West - A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep most of the West warm and dry throughout the week. Pop-up showers and storms will continue along the southern Rockies.
-----
Discussion:
Low pressure systems will continue to track along the northern U.S. and southern Canada this week as two ridges of high pressure, one in the West and one in the Southeast, keep things warm for most of the country. The weather pattern across the nation will be very slow to chance this week as jet activity remains relatively quiet and UL energy stays north of the U.S.
The Tropics should be quiet this week (and next week), but there's always the slight possibility of something popping up that none of the models have been able to pick up on yet.
tl;dr - What you see Monday is likely what you'll see the next day, and the next day, and the next, etc. etc.
Monday, July 5, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 4-10
Highlights:
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
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Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
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Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Making up for lost time
A giant ridge will keep me in the high and dry this week, so I'm using the free time to catch up on errands and other fun. Going to be moving to morning shifts at work soon!
With a three day weekend just one night away, I'm thinking I might actually get around to converting the site over to Wordpress. We'll see how that goes.
With a three day weekend just one night away, I'm thinking I might actually get around to converting the site over to Wordpress. We'll see how that goes.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
24 June 2010 Chase Pictures
A few video grabs of lightning:
Jason and I had the right target area today considering our departure time, but the storms that were moving 15-20 mph earlier in the day decided to move 45-50 mph by the time we got to them! We stayed a few miles south of this storm for about an hour before calling it, seeing as there was no way we could catch up with it, and the lightning display was over with. I'm glad we went, though, because of that last picture I got. Probably the best lightning shot this year.
Jason and I had the right target area today considering our departure time, but the storms that were moving 15-20 mph earlier in the day decided to move 45-50 mph by the time we got to them! We stayed a few miles south of this storm for about an hour before calling it, seeing as there was no way we could catch up with it, and the lightning display was over with. I'm glad we went, though, because of that last picture I got. Probably the best lightning shot this year.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
22 June 2010 Chase Pictures
Picture time!
GRLevel3 radar of the tornado-producing cell, with our GPS location (my car clock is actually 4 minutes fast)
Wall cloud off of that cell (facing north from I-76)
The storm moved quickly to the southeast and outran us as we struggled to find good roads.
Western edge of the cell (facing east)... Check out that sick double-rainbow right at the surface!
Same spot as last image, facing northwest at fast-moving low-level features. This is some interesting non-rotational scud that was detached from the cloud base (but is pretty deceptive in this picture).
Heading back west on Rt. 1 after the chase... storm-induced accident.
GRLevel3 radar of the tornado-producing cell, with our GPS location (my car clock is actually 4 minutes fast)
Wall cloud off of that cell (facing north from I-76)
The storm moved quickly to the southeast and outran us as we struggled to find good roads.
Western edge of the cell (facing east)... Check out that sick double-rainbow right at the surface!
Same spot as last image, facing northwest at fast-moving low-level features. This is some interesting non-rotational scud that was detached from the cloud base (but is pretty deceptive in this picture).
Heading back west on Rt. 1 after the chase... storm-induced accident.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
22 June 2010 Chase - Southern PA and Northern MD
Jason Foster and I just got back from chasing... was about 4-5 mi south of the reported tornado in SE PA. We didn't see the rotation or tornado (we were on I-76), but we did see the nice wall cloud that spawned it. Note that the TOR producer was not actually the cell that got TOR warned later on :P Pics and screen grabs coming soon.
Things we experienced today:
- Beautiful wall cloud.
- Two double rainbows, one of which was literally right at the ground.
- Dime sized and maybe a couple nickel sized hail (as we "core punched" the second cell that formed to our south).
- Estimated 60-65 mph wind gusts (as we were standing outside filming the tornadic storm).
- A large tree down in Cecil County, MD blocking a road just south of Rt. 1 (which we reported).
- Vivid CG lightning from three different cells.
We drove through an area with a pretty bad road network, especially during "rush hour," so we weren't able to catch up to the TOR warned southern cell after an hour of pursuit. All in all, we did see a lot of interesting things, got on the only chaseable tornadic cell of the day (so far), so it turned out to be a pretty good chase day.
Things we experienced today:
- Beautiful wall cloud.
- Two double rainbows, one of which was literally right at the ground.
- Dime sized and maybe a couple nickel sized hail (as we "core punched" the second cell that formed to our south).
- Estimated 60-65 mph wind gusts (as we were standing outside filming the tornadic storm).
- A large tree down in Cecil County, MD blocking a road just south of Rt. 1 (which we reported).
- Vivid CG lightning from three different cells.
We drove through an area with a pretty bad road network, especially during "rush hour," so we weren't able to catch up to the TOR warned southern cell after an hour of pursuit. All in all, we did see a lot of interesting things, got on the only chaseable tornadic cell of the day (so far), so it turned out to be a pretty good chase day.
Monday, June 21, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - June 20-26
Better late than never... trying to get back on schedule. My birthday was this weekend! High-fives all around.
Highlights:
Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.
Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.
Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.
First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.
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Discussion:
A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.
The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:
Besides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!
While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.
Highlights:
Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.
Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.
Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.
First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.
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Discussion:
A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.
The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:
KATL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
MON 21| TUE 22| WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28 CLIMO
X/N 95| 73 93| 72 92| 72 93| 74 92| 74 93| 74 93| 74 89 68 88
P24 | 17| 26| 16| 33| 23| 33| 39 33
CLD CL| CL PC| CL PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC OV| PC OVBesides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!
While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.
Monday, June 14, 2010
The Midwest is Stealing My Storms!
While the Midwest remains quite active in severe weather and MCS activity, the Mid-Atlantic has been struggling to get severe weather over the past week, especially areas east of the Appalachians. Tuesday and Wednesday (but mainly Wednesday) will provide more severe weather opportunities this week, but Thu-Sat is looking warm and dry. On the plus side, the three days of warm, dry weather is what I need to finish my deck! Only been waiting over two months for a prolonged period of hot and dry weather... we have been getting little shots of rain and damp air at least twice a week!
You might be wondering, "What happened to THIS week's What to Watch Fore(cast)?" Well, I worked a little over 60 hours over the past week, including 13 hours from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. I'm tired. Also, other things in life. Taking SVRWX in for repairs tomorrow morning, so hopefully the backup chase vehicle will be 100% in time for storms! The primary chase vehicle, owned by Jason Foster, is in the process of getting significant repairs. At least all this is happening during a lull in the severe weather, otherwise we'd be kicking ourselves.
You might be wondering, "What happened to THIS week's What to Watch Fore(cast)?" Well, I worked a little over 60 hours over the past week, including 13 hours from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. I'm tired. Also, other things in life. Taking SVRWX in for repairs tomorrow morning, so hopefully the backup chase vehicle will be 100% in time for storms! The primary chase vehicle, owned by Jason Foster, is in the process of getting significant repairs. At least all this is happening during a lull in the severe weather, otherwise we'd be kicking ourselves.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
June 5-6 Storm Photos
6/5/10: Southwest PA and Northern WV... Got on a TOR-warned cell that didn't produce for me, but it was a fun day nonetheless. It was car SVRWX's first chase ever, mostly because Jason Foster's vehicle was in need of repair at the time.
6/6/10: IMBY chasing in Montgomery Village, MD. Early afternoon severe storm pushed in from the west and gave me a vivid lightning display, with winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy downpours. It produced small hail just to our south.
6/6/10: IMBY chasing in Montgomery Village, MD. Early afternoon severe storm pushed in from the west and gave me a vivid lightning display, with winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy downpours. It produced small hail just to our south.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Severe Weather Continues...
After chasing 4 of the last 5 days (including this afternoon), not too much has been seen. I'll post pictures and recaps tomorrow after work. There will be no What to Watch Fore(cast) today since I have to get everything ready for chasing.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Chasing Opportunity Tomorrow and Over the Weekend
A slow-moving cold front will work its way into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, which will trigger severe weather Thursday for most of the Mid-Atlantic. Shear looks decent, LL lapse rates are superb, CAPE is good for the area, there's plenty of moisture, and some UL dynamics will be enough to trigger a good amount of severe weather, including an isolated tornado or two (or five?). I anticipate a good chasing day in Southern PA and Northern MD as storms cluster and form loose lines as they move eastward at 20-35 mph.
As the front stalls out of the region this weekend, a series of disturbances will be passing through in the upcoming week. These disturbances will give the Mid-Atlantic several more looks at severe weather, the first of which will be towards the end of the weekend.
As the front stalls out of the region this weekend, a series of disturbances will be passing through in the upcoming week. These disturbances will give the Mid-Atlantic several more looks at severe weather, the first of which will be towards the end of the weekend.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 30 - June 5
Highlights:
Hot and wet in the East - The eastern third of the nation will be seeing warm and wet weather this week as unstable air lingers over the region.
Pacific Northwest finally moving into summer? - After a few more rounds of wet weather this week, this weekend could mark the start of drier, more summer-like weather in the Pac. Northwest.
The onset of cooler weather - The Midwest and Northeast may see the start of a period of below-normal temperatures later this week.
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Discussion:
The first week of June marks the beginning of an active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with several storm systems moving through the region over the next 7-8 days. These systems will keep the air relatively unstable throughout the eastern third of the nation, which will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms all week. More organized and more severe storms will be possible along the onslaught of cold fronts that will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which means plenty of opportunities to go chasing!
Following these storms will be increasingly cooler air, which appears to favor sitting over the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, and it looks like it is setting up for an extended stay as the cooler temperatures extend into next week. A long wave upper-level trough is attempting to settle into these areas in the long range, as an active storm track appears to continually reinforce the trough.
As the weather pattern begins to shift from what we have been seeing for the past several months (cool in the west, warm in the east), the change in the ridge/trough pattern in the east will mean closer to normal temperatures in the Western U.S., which will help keep storm systems further north and out of the Pacific Northwest. After a couple more systems push through, the Pac. NW will see the beginning of drier and warmer weather as summer tries to push into the region.
Hot and wet in the East - The eastern third of the nation will be seeing warm and wet weather this week as unstable air lingers over the region.
Pacific Northwest finally moving into summer? - After a few more rounds of wet weather this week, this weekend could mark the start of drier, more summer-like weather in the Pac. Northwest.
The onset of cooler weather - The Midwest and Northeast may see the start of a period of below-normal temperatures later this week.
-----
Discussion:
The first week of June marks the beginning of an active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with several storm systems moving through the region over the next 7-8 days. These systems will keep the air relatively unstable throughout the eastern third of the nation, which will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms all week. More organized and more severe storms will be possible along the onslaught of cold fronts that will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which means plenty of opportunities to go chasing!
Following these storms will be increasingly cooler air, which appears to favor sitting over the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, and it looks like it is setting up for an extended stay as the cooler temperatures extend into next week. A long wave upper-level trough is attempting to settle into these areas in the long range, as an active storm track appears to continually reinforce the trough.
As the weather pattern begins to shift from what we have been seeing for the past several months (cool in the west, warm in the east), the change in the ridge/trough pattern in the east will mean closer to normal temperatures in the Western U.S., which will help keep storm systems further north and out of the Pacific Northwest. After a couple more systems push through, the Pac. NW will see the beginning of drier and warmer weather as summer tries to push into the region.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
27 May 2010 Pictures
Grabbed a couple "shots" from the 27th... had some decent lightning overnight, but most of the viewable lightning was too far away and I didn't see too much action by the time the storm got to me.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Neat Images (Warning: Weather Nerd Heavy)
5/22 SFC CAPE values via the SPC Mesoanalysis page (6000+!!!):
5/24 Severe weather watches (You can not escape!):
5/24 Severe weather watches (You can not escape!):
Sunday, May 23, 2010
No Forecast This Week
I'd hate to do it, but life is crazy this week and I haven't had time to update amongst all of it. Nothing too crazy going on this week, anyway, with the exception of a sub-tropical system possible off of the Southeast US coast. Enjoy your week!
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 22-23
A weakening disturbance will bring enough instability into the area this weekend for afternoon showers and garden-variety boomers as it lifts out of the trough to our west. Severe will be isolated west of the Appalachians, and is not expected along the East Coast at this time. There is only a little dynamic forcing with the Mid-Atlantic airmass, with very weak speed shear and limited moisture. Other than that, sit back and enjoy our seasonal temps as a Death Ridge takes hold of the eastern half of the U.S. Onshore flow will continue through next week, with a subtropical low pressure system possibly making an appearance along the Coast.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 16-22
Abbreviated discussion this week (highlights only) due to a very odd weekend schedule (see: storm chasing). I may update with the full discussion later on.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
14 May 2010 Storm Chasing Pictures
Went out storm chasing with Jason Foster on the 14th in Virginia, mostly along I-81, and grabbed some shots:
View the full album
View the full album
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 12-14
I wanted to add something to the site, so I figured I could post severe risks with storm systems as they pass through the Mid-Atlantic region. Here is the first installment:
Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.
This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.
Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.
This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 9-15
Highlights:
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 2-8
Highlights:
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
Monday, April 26, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 25 - May 1
Late update, but with good reason... had a wedding to go to, which included 14 hours of travel and only 2 hours off from work. Local severe weather kept me occupied this past evening before I had to head into work. Anyway...
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
Monday, April 19, 2010
My Thoughts On May
Since I have been getting into a bit of debate on a weather forum that I frequent, I thought I'd share my ideas for May here.
Coming off of record heat and a scorcher of a month in the East for April, I believe May will have a bit of a different story to tell. With ENSO, NAO, AO and PNA values going into May tracking similarly to those that lead into April, one could think another warm month in the East would be expected. However, given the actual values of the various indices, one would assume the opposite, with warm anomalies in the West and cooler anomalies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. So what happened?
Throughout this month, the Southwest Coast has been receiving a large amount of storms and heavy rain, which is downstream of a ridge that has been in place over the Central Pacific for awhile now. This caused a H-L-H pattern that stretched from the Central Pacific to the Eastern US. The ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the nation brought in the anomalous warmth that gave 90s to almost the entirety of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast at some point in the beginning of April.
So why will May be different? While the start of May is looking to have a similar pattern to the start of April (with the anomalies being much less extreme in May), models are favoring less cut-off lows just off the California coast than what has happened in April, in order to favor a more northerly track through the Pacific Northwest. This would allow ridging to take a hold in the East Pacific and Western US, which would be the normal conditions for mid to late Spring. Coincidentally, this would also favor a trough in the Eastern US, dominated by storms dropping from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Plains, with a secondary low formation hot-spot in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This could mean an active period of severe weather in May across the Central and Southern Plains and in the Southeast.
Forecast summary:
Coming off of record heat and a scorcher of a month in the East for April, I believe May will have a bit of a different story to tell. With ENSO, NAO, AO and PNA values going into May tracking similarly to those that lead into April, one could think another warm month in the East would be expected. However, given the actual values of the various indices, one would assume the opposite, with warm anomalies in the West and cooler anomalies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. So what happened?
Throughout this month, the Southwest Coast has been receiving a large amount of storms and heavy rain, which is downstream of a ridge that has been in place over the Central Pacific for awhile now. This caused a H-L-H pattern that stretched from the Central Pacific to the Eastern US. The ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the nation brought in the anomalous warmth that gave 90s to almost the entirety of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast at some point in the beginning of April.
So why will May be different? While the start of May is looking to have a similar pattern to the start of April (with the anomalies being much less extreme in May), models are favoring less cut-off lows just off the California coast than what has happened in April, in order to favor a more northerly track through the Pacific Northwest. This would allow ridging to take a hold in the East Pacific and Western US, which would be the normal conditions for mid to late Spring. Coincidentally, this would also favor a trough in the Eastern US, dominated by storms dropping from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Plains, with a secondary low formation hot-spot in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This could mean an active period of severe weather in May across the Central and Southern Plains and in the Southeast.
Forecast summary:
Sunday, April 18, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 18-24
Highlights:
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
New Web Address
As of now, my site is being hosted at http://ellinwoodweather.com/, which will undergo formatting changes and conversion over to WordPress as I find the time to do so. Once that's done, I will stop using blogger and my albany.edu address will forward you to the new site. I may or may not also start posting more.
Stay tuned for tomorrow's What To Watch Fore(cast), as it will contain what could be the biggest severe risk so far this season!
Stay tuned for tomorrow's What To Watch Fore(cast), as it will contain what could be the biggest severe risk so far this season!
Monday, April 12, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 11-17
Late update... forgot to do it amongst all of the chores I was doing over the weekend. Spring cleaning is fun!
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 4-10
Highlights:
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 28 - Apr. 3
Highlights:
Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.
Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.
Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.
Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.
Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread QPF in the 4-8" range.
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Discussion:
A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.
Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.
In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.
Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.
However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.
Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.
Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.
Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.
Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.
Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread QPF in the 4-8" range.
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Discussion:
A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.
Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.
In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.
Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.
However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 21-27
Highlights:
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
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Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
-----
Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
Monday, February 15, 2010
In Maryland Now...
Been busy with moving and getting ready for my new job, which starts tonight. I wasn't able to do an in-depth forecast for the Tu/Wed East Coast storm because of this, which was a bit disappointing. Big flakes of snow are starting to fall at the moment here in the D.C. area, but only about 2-4 inches of snow is expected. Parts of New England could see good snow accumulations from this system, and I may make a storm forecast later today. Nothing big is in the works at the moment for severe weather, but I'll keep an eye out for it.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Feb. 4-6 Soaker System
NOTE: Forecast is for one storm system, and does not include the impacts of other storms in the US during the same time period.
Another soaker is taking form in the models... which are all in excellent agreement with the timing and positioning of the system at this time. Two pockets of UL energy - one from the Pacific NW and one from northern Mexico - will interact over the South Central US to generate a significant low pressure system. The subtropical portion will draw in plenty of moisture to feed the system, and the Pac. NW portion will provide additional energy behind it, which will help to deepen the low and increase the amount of winter weather associated with this system.
Southern TX will have already received a good portion of rain on Feb. 3, and will receive additional moderate rain as the storm system takes form on Feb. 4. Cooler temps to the north will allow for mixed precipitation and snow in the Great Plains and along the eastern Rockies.
As this system develops and pushes eastward, the vast amount of moisture injected into the system will provide heavy rain across the SE, with mixed precipitation switching over to heavy snow in the Midwest. This swath of precip. will slide east into the Mid Atlantic as the storm moves off the coast.
The severe threat from this system is minimal. Most of the ML and UL air will be drawn in from the tropics, which will weaken the ML and UL lapse rates and hinder convection. Extensive cloud cover will keep surface temps low in most areas, further decreasing the risk of severe weather. However, some low-topped convection could be seen in parts of southern AL and GA and northern FL, which could result in isolated thunderstorms.
Another soaker is taking form in the models... which are all in excellent agreement with the timing and positioning of the system at this time. Two pockets of UL energy - one from the Pacific NW and one from northern Mexico - will interact over the South Central US to generate a significant low pressure system. The subtropical portion will draw in plenty of moisture to feed the system, and the Pac. NW portion will provide additional energy behind it, which will help to deepen the low and increase the amount of winter weather associated with this system.
Southern TX will have already received a good portion of rain on Feb. 3, and will receive additional moderate rain as the storm system takes form on Feb. 4. Cooler temps to the north will allow for mixed precipitation and snow in the Great Plains and along the eastern Rockies.
As this system develops and pushes eastward, the vast amount of moisture injected into the system will provide heavy rain across the SE, with mixed precipitation switching over to heavy snow in the Midwest. This swath of precip. will slide east into the Mid Atlantic as the storm moves off the coast.
The severe threat from this system is minimal. Most of the ML and UL air will be drawn in from the tropics, which will weaken the ML and UL lapse rates and hinder convection. Extensive cloud cover will keep surface temps low in most areas, further decreasing the risk of severe weather. However, some low-topped convection could be seen in parts of southern AL and GA and northern FL, which could result in isolated thunderstorms.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Jan 23-25 Verification
Verifications for the January 23-25 storm.
All SPC forecasts are from the Day 3 Outlook of Jan. 20-22. My forecast was made on the 20th (3-5 day outlook).
AGAINST THE SPC:
My TX/LA severe threat could have been cut down to 5% since nothing happened. There was a strong line of elevated storms that moved through the area, but since it was not surface-based, the severe winds did not reach the surface. The same deal happened in PA/NJ, in which a strong line of storms moved through the region, but they were not surface-based. All in all, a pretty good forecast compared to the SPC day 3 outlooks.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
The one NY report was for a mudslide, and not actually for damaging winds. Other than that, my Slight Risk encapsulated all of the severe reports, and my winter forecast was pretty good as well.
OVERALL:
4.5/5. Coverage was excellent, but was too extensive in a couple of areas. However, given the potential for severe weather in these areas, it was an excellent forecast.
All SPC forecasts are from the Day 3 Outlook of Jan. 20-22. My forecast was made on the 20th (3-5 day outlook).
AGAINST THE SPC:
My TX/LA severe threat could have been cut down to 5% since nothing happened. There was a strong line of elevated storms that moved through the area, but since it was not surface-based, the severe winds did not reach the surface. The same deal happened in PA/NJ, in which a strong line of storms moved through the region, but they were not surface-based. All in all, a pretty good forecast compared to the SPC day 3 outlooks.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
The one NY report was for a mudslide, and not actually for damaging winds. Other than that, my Slight Risk encapsulated all of the severe reports, and my winter forecast was pretty good as well.
OVERALL:
4.5/5. Coverage was excellent, but was too extensive in a couple of areas. However, given the potential for severe weather in these areas, it was an excellent forecast.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Bah!
Between finding a new place to live and getting called in to work, I haven't been able to update, and that makes me sad. Will try to update tonight.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Jan 20-22 Verification Part 2
I'm having a bit of difficulty overlaying stuff for the verifications, so just eye-ball these first couple...
All SPC verifications will be as close to when I made my original forecasts. Originally done on the 18th, my forecast was a 3-5 day forecast, which gave the SPC a slight advantage since their forecast for the 21st is one day fresher and the 22nd is two days fresher.
NOTE: I only forecasted for the Southeast, so ignore the reports I missed out west.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
I dropped the ball on the TX/OK/LA storms, which turned out to be the most critical reports of the storm. I did not anticipate the storm system to come together as early and as far west as it did, which is why my severe risk did not include these reports. Subsequent analyses would have fixed this error, but as I was only doing one forecast, this is what I've got. Besides one report in KY, I was able to grab the northern extent of the reports.
AGAINST THE SPC:
The SPC beat me with the TX/LA storms, and was right about the lower risk in SC. However, their northern extent of of the risk area was off quite a bit. They remedied this by the Day 1 Outlook, but I beat them to the punch.
OVERALL:
I'd give the overall rating of my forecast a 3/5. It encompassed most of the reports, but it missed the main event, and could have been more concise along the East Coast.
All SPC verifications will be as close to when I made my original forecasts. Originally done on the 18th, my forecast was a 3-5 day forecast, which gave the SPC a slight advantage since their forecast for the 21st is one day fresher and the 22nd is two days fresher.
NOTE: I only forecasted for the Southeast, so ignore the reports I missed out west.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
I dropped the ball on the TX/OK/LA storms, which turned out to be the most critical reports of the storm. I did not anticipate the storm system to come together as early and as far west as it did, which is why my severe risk did not include these reports. Subsequent analyses would have fixed this error, but as I was only doing one forecast, this is what I've got. Besides one report in KY, I was able to grab the northern extent of the reports.
AGAINST THE SPC:
The SPC beat me with the TX/LA storms, and was right about the lower risk in SC. However, their northern extent of of the risk area was off quite a bit. They remedied this by the Day 1 Outlook, but I beat them to the punch.
OVERALL:
I'd give the overall rating of my forecast a 3/5. It encompassed most of the reports, but it missed the main event, and could have been more concise along the East Coast.
Verifications on their way...
I've been meaning to get this new computer of mine up and running with image editing software, and I'm finally putting it in today. This will enable me to do a direct overlay of my forecast and the storm reports, amongst other things. Look for verifications for the last two forecasts, as well as detailed explanations later today.
If I get it all in before it's late, I'll even toss in a forecast for the upcoming winter storm that will greatly impact the Great Plains, Midwest and Mid Atlantic, with some boomer potential in the Southeast.
If I get it all in before it's late, I'll even toss in a forecast for the upcoming winter storm that will greatly impact the Great Plains, Midwest and Mid Atlantic, with some boomer potential in the Southeast.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wx Discussion... Jan. 23-25 Central and Eastern US
JANUARY 23-25, 2010
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER THREAT
A powerful storm is currently that is currently soaking the West Coast will also have a significant impact in the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. The timing and placement of this storm is pretty consistent between the GFS, ECMWF and CMC model forecasts, which gives me fairly good confidence in this forecast. If the current forecast verifies, we could see severe weather as far north as eastern PA and NJ. This will be dependent upon when the storm occludes, which will be the big determining factor to the northern extent of severe weather.
A strong LL southerly jet will force warm, moist air to migrate northward ahead of a long area of concentrated ML vorticity, which will run north-south over almost the entire N-S length of the US. The UL jet will orient itself SW-NE and provide a great area of lift and will also act to strengthen the center of low pressure as it makes its way from the Central US up through the Great Lakes.
Given the current setup, we could see Slight risks for severe weather extending from the southern US in eastern TX and eastward through most of FL, going north up through parts of MO and extending NE through KY west of the Appalachians. The precip. will redevelop east of the Appalachians and affect most of the east coast up through most of NJ. There will likely be a Slight risk issued for areas east of the Appalachians extending from Central FL up to the DC area, with a See Text from DC up through eastern PA and most of NJ.
Eastern PA and NJ may be in for a strong wind event, should this storm have a favorable development. Most of the ingredients are in place for a severe wind outbreak across this region, which will be created by a well-organized line of storms forming along the cold front near the triple-point where the occluded, cold and warm fronts meet. These events are mostly dynamically-driven, and can be a surprise to many people in this region given the unexpectedness of severe weather during the winter months. Warming at the surface will be the main thing to watch in PA and NJ as this storm develops, as it's temp. relative to the ML and UL temps. will make or break the severe threat in this region.
Now, with all of this exciting severe stuff going on, we cannot discount the winter weather that will be associated with this system. The storm will sit in the Central US for a bit before heading east, which will give it ample time to wrap moisture around the northern and western parts of the center of low pressure. This will cause a wintry mix and a good amount of snow over the northern Great Plains and the western Great Lakes region. The possibility of widespread mixed-precip. over these areas could be disastrous, depending on how far south the rain/snow line reaches during this event. The same areas getting hit by winter weather from the current storm could see additional accumulations of frozen precip. However, areas affected ahead of the center of low pressure may be spared the worst, as rain and wet snow will be prevalent, making travel and cleanup considerably easier.
Here's a map for you all to enjoy:
The 5% (i.e. "See Text") and Slight risks are made using SPC risk standards.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER THREAT
A powerful storm is currently that is currently soaking the West Coast will also have a significant impact in the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. The timing and placement of this storm is pretty consistent between the GFS, ECMWF and CMC model forecasts, which gives me fairly good confidence in this forecast. If the current forecast verifies, we could see severe weather as far north as eastern PA and NJ. This will be dependent upon when the storm occludes, which will be the big determining factor to the northern extent of severe weather.
A strong LL southerly jet will force warm, moist air to migrate northward ahead of a long area of concentrated ML vorticity, which will run north-south over almost the entire N-S length of the US. The UL jet will orient itself SW-NE and provide a great area of lift and will also act to strengthen the center of low pressure as it makes its way from the Central US up through the Great Lakes.
Given the current setup, we could see Slight risks for severe weather extending from the southern US in eastern TX and eastward through most of FL, going north up through parts of MO and extending NE through KY west of the Appalachians. The precip. will redevelop east of the Appalachians and affect most of the east coast up through most of NJ. There will likely be a Slight risk issued for areas east of the Appalachians extending from Central FL up to the DC area, with a See Text from DC up through eastern PA and most of NJ.
Eastern PA and NJ may be in for a strong wind event, should this storm have a favorable development. Most of the ingredients are in place for a severe wind outbreak across this region, which will be created by a well-organized line of storms forming along the cold front near the triple-point where the occluded, cold and warm fronts meet. These events are mostly dynamically-driven, and can be a surprise to many people in this region given the unexpectedness of severe weather during the winter months. Warming at the surface will be the main thing to watch in PA and NJ as this storm develops, as it's temp. relative to the ML and UL temps. will make or break the severe threat in this region.
Now, with all of this exciting severe stuff going on, we cannot discount the winter weather that will be associated with this system. The storm will sit in the Central US for a bit before heading east, which will give it ample time to wrap moisture around the northern and western parts of the center of low pressure. This will cause a wintry mix and a good amount of snow over the northern Great Plains and the western Great Lakes region. The possibility of widespread mixed-precip. over these areas could be disastrous, depending on how far south the rain/snow line reaches during this event. The same areas getting hit by winter weather from the current storm could see additional accumulations of frozen precip. However, areas affected ahead of the center of low pressure may be spared the worst, as rain and wet snow will be prevalent, making travel and cleanup considerably easier.
Here's a map for you all to enjoy:
The 5% (i.e. "See Text") and Slight risks are made using SPC risk standards.
Jan. 20-22 Verification, Part 1
VERIFICATION, PART 1:
Here are this morning's SPC severe weather outlooks:
It looks like my area of slight risk was excellent, with the exception that I did not bring the risk area far enough west. Understandable, considering the timing of the storm was still a bit off at the point of my forecast. Also, the SPC does not have SC in the Slight risk, but I'm not a big fan of that call.
More verification with actual storm reports will be posted later.
Here are this morning's SPC severe weather outlooks:
It looks like my area of slight risk was excellent, with the exception that I did not bring the risk area far enough west. Understandable, considering the timing of the storm was still a bit off at the point of my forecast. Also, the SPC does not have SC in the Slight risk, but I'm not a big fan of that call.
More verification with actual storm reports will be posted later.
Wx Discussion... Jan. 20-22 Southeast
(This was originally posted on a forum by me on the 18th...)
This is the first of hopefully many weather discussions written by yours truly. To keep myself updating more often, I will not include images, as they take extra time to put on the site, and I do not want to deal with that every thread.
These posts will contain technical discussions, with some words abridged on a consistent basis, such as low/mid/upper level, weather indices, and geographic regions.
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JANUARY 20-22, 2010
SOUTHEAST SOAKER AND SEVERE THREAT
Strong dynamics will come together over eastern TX and LA late on the 20th to produce widespread heavy precipitation over parts of the SE on the 21st and part of the 22nd. A strong LL jet will inject moisture into the SE ahead of a small-but-significant area of ML vorticity. The system's development on the morning of the 21st will be brief, but significant. Strong UL divergence created by the UL jet, along with a negatively-tilted trough axis, will complete the formula for strong dynamics over the SE.
Aiding the chance for severe weather across the SE will be the strong ML and UL lapse rates that will manifest as the dry UL air associated with the Mexican Plateau is advected over the SE. However, the prefrontal thermodynamic instability will be limited by precip. and lingering clouds that will form during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which will weaken the lapse rates out ahead of the area of greatest dynamic lift.
So what does this mean for the SE? Extensive cloudcover will keep severe weather damped, but areas with clearer conditions and more favorable LL and ML lapse rates could see rapidly-developing storms with the potential for damaging hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The 21st will most likely have a Slight Risk for severe weather, extending from MS to FL and northward through TN west of the Appalachians and through SC. The northward extent of the severe weather will be highly dependent upon the strength of the LL jet.
Ample moisture, along with the strong dynamics, will create broad areas of 1-2" of rain across the SE, with localized rainfall approaching 6" in areas that are already struggling with the high rainfall amounts of recent months.
UPDATE:
Added a picture for the severe description:
This is the first of hopefully many weather discussions written by yours truly. To keep myself updating more often, I will not include images, as they take extra time to put on the site, and I do not want to deal with that every thread.
These posts will contain technical discussions, with some words abridged on a consistent basis, such as low/mid/upper level, weather indices, and geographic regions.
-----
JANUARY 20-22, 2010
SOUTHEAST SOAKER AND SEVERE THREAT
Strong dynamics will come together over eastern TX and LA late on the 20th to produce widespread heavy precipitation over parts of the SE on the 21st and part of the 22nd. A strong LL jet will inject moisture into the SE ahead of a small-but-significant area of ML vorticity. The system's development on the morning of the 21st will be brief, but significant. Strong UL divergence created by the UL jet, along with a negatively-tilted trough axis, will complete the formula for strong dynamics over the SE.
Aiding the chance for severe weather across the SE will be the strong ML and UL lapse rates that will manifest as the dry UL air associated with the Mexican Plateau is advected over the SE. However, the prefrontal thermodynamic instability will be limited by precip. and lingering clouds that will form during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which will weaken the lapse rates out ahead of the area of greatest dynamic lift.
So what does this mean for the SE? Extensive cloudcover will keep severe weather damped, but areas with clearer conditions and more favorable LL and ML lapse rates could see rapidly-developing storms with the potential for damaging hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The 21st will most likely have a Slight Risk for severe weather, extending from MS to FL and northward through TN west of the Appalachians and through SC. The northward extent of the severe weather will be highly dependent upon the strength of the LL jet.
Ample moisture, along with the strong dynamics, will create broad areas of 1-2" of rain across the SE, with localized rainfall approaching 6" in areas that are already struggling with the high rainfall amounts of recent months.
UPDATE:
Added a picture for the severe description:
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