Another soaker is taking form in the models... which are all in excellent agreement with the timing and positioning of the system at this time. Two pockets of UL energy - one from the Pacific NW and one from northern Mexico - will interact over the South Central US to generate a significant low pressure system. The subtropical portion will draw in plenty of moisture to feed the system, and the Pac. NW portion will provide additional energy behind it, which will help to deepen the low and increase the amount of winter weather associated with this system.
Southern TX will have already received a good portion of rain on Feb. 3, and will receive additional moderate rain as the storm system takes form on Feb. 4. Cooler temps to the north will allow for mixed precipitation and snow in the Great Plains and along the eastern Rockies.
As this system develops and pushes eastward, the vast amount of moisture injected into the system will provide heavy rain across the SE, with mixed precipitation switching over to heavy snow in the Midwest. This swath of precip. will slide east into the Mid Atlantic as the storm moves off the coast.
The severe threat from this system is minimal. Most of the ML and UL air will be drawn in from the tropics, which will weaken the ML and UL lapse rates and hinder convection. Extensive cloud cover will keep surface temps low in most areas, further decreasing the risk of severe weather. However, some low-topped convection could be seen in parts of southern AL and GA and northern FL, which could result in isolated thunderstorms.
No comments:
Post a Comment