Mid-Atlantic Discussion: July 13

Some nice thermal instability and veering winds will be in place over the Mid-Atlantic today, allowing for storms to fire up easily. 2% TOR risk in E MD, E PA, DE, NJ and S NY will keep everyone's eyes glued to the radar today.

Cloud cover will be a major issue in determining instability today. Some thick OVC over W MD right now... VA/WV mtns are mostly sunny... cloud deck trying to break up in E PA and E MD/DE.

Shear profile is MUCH better in the northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but overall storm coverage will likely be better over WV/VA today.

Convective Mode(s):
- Multicell
- MCS

Chase locations...
- SE PA (go for gold!)
- C VA (go for silver!)
- DELMARVA (late addition!)

Chance of chasing: 95%

Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 22-23

A weakening disturbance will bring enough instability into the area this weekend for afternoon showers and garden-variety boomers as it lifts out of the trough to our west. Severe will be isolated west of the Appalachians, and is not expected along the East Coast at this time. There is only a little dynamic forcing with the Mid-Atlantic airmass, with very weak speed shear and limited moisture. Other than that, sit back and enjoy our seasonal temps as a Death Ridge takes hold of the eastern half of the U.S. Onshore flow will continue through next week, with a subtropical low pressure system possibly making an appearance along the Coast.

Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 12-14

I wanted to add something to the site, so I figured I could post severe risks with storm systems as they pass through the Mid-Atlantic region. Here is the first installment:

Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.

This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.