Sunday, July 18, 2010
This blog is now hosted fully on ellinwoodweather.com
I no longer have the need to embed this blog on my home page, so you can now visit http://ellinwoodweather.com/ directly to read blog updates and see new content!
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: July 13
Some nice thermal instability and veering winds will be in place over the Mid-Atlantic today, allowing for storms to fire up easily. 2% TOR risk in E MD, E PA, DE, NJ and S NY will keep everyone's eyes glued to the radar today.
Cloud cover will be a major issue in determining instability today. Some thick OVC over W MD right now... VA/WV mtns are mostly sunny... cloud deck trying to break up in E PA and E MD/DE.
Shear profile is MUCH better in the northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but overall storm coverage will likely be better over WV/VA today.
Convective Mode(s):
- Multicell
- MCS
Chase locations...
- SE PA (go for gold!)
- C VA (go for silver!)
- DELMARVA (late addition!)
Chance of chasing: 95%
Cloud cover will be a major issue in determining instability today. Some thick OVC over W MD right now... VA/WV mtns are mostly sunny... cloud deck trying to break up in E PA and E MD/DE.
Shear profile is MUCH better in the northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but overall storm coverage will likely be better over WV/VA today.
Convective Mode(s):
- Multicell
- MCS
Chase locations...
- C VA (go for silver!)
- DELMARVA (late addition!)
Chance of chasing: 95%
Sunday, July 11, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 11-17
Highlights:
Stagnant Southeast - High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the Southeast in the warmer weather, with a chance of showers and storms every day.
Wet in the East - A series of slow-moving systems will keep the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast under the risk for rain and thunderstorms through most of the week.
High and dry in the West - A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep most of the West warm and dry throughout the week. Pop-up showers and storms will continue along the southern Rockies.
-----
Discussion:
Low pressure systems will continue to track along the northern U.S. and southern Canada this week as two ridges of high pressure, one in the West and one in the Southeast, keep things warm for most of the country. The weather pattern across the nation will be very slow to chance this week as jet activity remains relatively quiet and UL energy stays north of the U.S.
The Tropics should be quiet this week (and next week), but there's always the slight possibility of something popping up that none of the models have been able to pick up on yet.
tl;dr - What you see Monday is likely what you'll see the next day, and the next day, and the next, etc. etc.
Stagnant Southeast - High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the Southeast in the warmer weather, with a chance of showers and storms every day.
Wet in the East - A series of slow-moving systems will keep the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast under the risk for rain and thunderstorms through most of the week.
High and dry in the West - A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep most of the West warm and dry throughout the week. Pop-up showers and storms will continue along the southern Rockies.
-----
Discussion:
Low pressure systems will continue to track along the northern U.S. and southern Canada this week as two ridges of high pressure, one in the West and one in the Southeast, keep things warm for most of the country. The weather pattern across the nation will be very slow to chance this week as jet activity remains relatively quiet and UL energy stays north of the U.S.
The Tropics should be quiet this week (and next week), but there's always the slight possibility of something popping up that none of the models have been able to pick up on yet.
tl;dr - What you see Monday is likely what you'll see the next day, and the next day, and the next, etc. etc.
Monday, July 5, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 4-10
Highlights:
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
-----
Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
-----
Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Making up for lost time
A giant ridge will keep me in the high and dry this week, so I'm using the free time to catch up on errands and other fun. Going to be moving to morning shifts at work soon!
With a three day weekend just one night away, I'm thinking I might actually get around to converting the site over to Wordpress. We'll see how that goes.
With a three day weekend just one night away, I'm thinking I might actually get around to converting the site over to Wordpress. We'll see how that goes.
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