What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 4-10

Highlights:

Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.

The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.

Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region

Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.

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Discussion:

Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.

A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.