Late update, but with good reason... had a wedding to go to, which included 14 hours of travel and only 2 hours off from work. Local severe weather kept me occupied this past evening before I had to head into work. Anyway...
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
My Thoughts On May
Since I have been getting into a bit of debate on a weather forum that I frequent, I thought I'd share my ideas for May here.
Coming off of record heat and a scorcher of a month in the East for April, I believe May will have a bit of a different story to tell. With ENSO, NAO, AO and PNA values going into May tracking similarly to those that lead into April, one could think another warm month in the East would be expected. However, given the actual values of the various indices, one would assume the opposite, with warm anomalies in the West and cooler anomalies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. So what happened?
Throughout this month, the Southwest Coast has been receiving a large amount of storms and heavy rain, which is downstream of a ridge that has been in place over the Central Pacific for awhile now. This caused a H-L-H pattern that stretched from the Central Pacific to the Eastern US. The ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the nation brought in the anomalous warmth that gave 90s to almost the entirety of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast at some point in the beginning of April.
So why will May be different? While the start of May is looking to have a similar pattern to the start of April (with the anomalies being much less extreme in May), models are favoring less cut-off lows just off the California coast than what has happened in April, in order to favor a more northerly track through the Pacific Northwest. This would allow ridging to take a hold in the East Pacific and Western US, which would be the normal conditions for mid to late Spring. Coincidentally, this would also favor a trough in the Eastern US, dominated by storms dropping from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Plains, with a secondary low formation hot-spot in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This could mean an active period of severe weather in May across the Central and Southern Plains and in the Southeast.
Forecast summary:
Coming off of record heat and a scorcher of a month in the East for April, I believe May will have a bit of a different story to tell. With ENSO, NAO, AO and PNA values going into May tracking similarly to those that lead into April, one could think another warm month in the East would be expected. However, given the actual values of the various indices, one would assume the opposite, with warm anomalies in the West and cooler anomalies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. So what happened?
Throughout this month, the Southwest Coast has been receiving a large amount of storms and heavy rain, which is downstream of a ridge that has been in place over the Central Pacific for awhile now. This caused a H-L-H pattern that stretched from the Central Pacific to the Eastern US. The ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the nation brought in the anomalous warmth that gave 90s to almost the entirety of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast at some point in the beginning of April.
So why will May be different? While the start of May is looking to have a similar pattern to the start of April (with the anomalies being much less extreme in May), models are favoring less cut-off lows just off the California coast than what has happened in April, in order to favor a more northerly track through the Pacific Northwest. This would allow ridging to take a hold in the East Pacific and Western US, which would be the normal conditions for mid to late Spring. Coincidentally, this would also favor a trough in the Eastern US, dominated by storms dropping from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Plains, with a secondary low formation hot-spot in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This could mean an active period of severe weather in May across the Central and Southern Plains and in the Southeast.
Forecast summary:
Sunday, April 18, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 18-24
Highlights:
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
New Web Address
As of now, my site is being hosted at http://ellinwoodweather.com/, which will undergo formatting changes and conversion over to WordPress as I find the time to do so. Once that's done, I will stop using blogger and my albany.edu address will forward you to the new site. I may or may not also start posting more.
Stay tuned for tomorrow's What To Watch Fore(cast), as it will contain what could be the biggest severe risk so far this season!
Stay tuned for tomorrow's What To Watch Fore(cast), as it will contain what could be the biggest severe risk so far this season!
Monday, April 12, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 11-17
Late update... forgot to do it amongst all of the chores I was doing over the weekend. Spring cleaning is fun!
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 4-10
Highlights:
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
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