Late update, but with good reason... had a wedding to go to, which included 14 hours of travel and only 2 hours off from work. Local severe weather kept me occupied this past evening before I had to head into work. Anyway...
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
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