What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 18-24

Highlights:

Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.

Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.

Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.

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Discussion:

An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.

The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.

A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.