Highlights:
Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.
Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.
Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.
Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.
Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread QPF in the 4-8" range.
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Discussion:
A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.
Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.
In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.
Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.
However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Sunday, March 21, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 21-27
Highlights:
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
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Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
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Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
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