Highlights:
Hot and wet in the East - The eastern third of the nation will be seeing warm and wet weather this week as unstable air lingers over the region.
Pacific Northwest finally moving into summer? - After a few more rounds of wet weather this week, this weekend could mark the start of drier, more summer-like weather in the Pac. Northwest.
The onset of cooler weather - The Midwest and Northeast may see the start of a period of below-normal temperatures later this week.
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Discussion:
The first week of June marks the beginning of an active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with several storm systems moving through the region over the next 7-8 days. These systems will keep the air relatively unstable throughout the eastern third of the nation, which will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms all week. More organized and more severe storms will be possible along the onslaught of cold fronts that will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which means plenty of opportunities to go chasing!
Following these storms will be increasingly cooler air, which appears to favor sitting over the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, and it looks like it is setting up for an extended stay as the cooler temperatures extend into next week. A long wave upper-level trough is attempting to settle into these areas in the long range, as an active storm track appears to continually reinforce the trough.
As the weather pattern begins to shift from what we have been seeing for the past several months (cool in the west, warm in the east), the change in the ridge/trough pattern in the east will mean closer to normal temperatures in the Western U.S., which will help keep storm systems further north and out of the Pacific Northwest. After a couple more systems push through, the Pac. NW will see the beginning of drier and warmer weather as summer tries to push into the region.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
27 May 2010 Pictures
Grabbed a couple "shots" from the 27th... had some decent lightning overnight, but most of the viewable lightning was too far away and I didn't see too much action by the time the storm got to me.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Neat Images (Warning: Weather Nerd Heavy)
5/22 SFC CAPE values via the SPC Mesoanalysis page (6000+!!!):
5/24 Severe weather watches (You can not escape!):
5/24 Severe weather watches (You can not escape!):
Sunday, May 23, 2010
No Forecast This Week
I'd hate to do it, but life is crazy this week and I haven't had time to update amongst all of it. Nothing too crazy going on this week, anyway, with the exception of a sub-tropical system possible off of the Southeast US coast. Enjoy your week!
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 22-23
A weakening disturbance will bring enough instability into the area this weekend for afternoon showers and garden-variety boomers as it lifts out of the trough to our west. Severe will be isolated west of the Appalachians, and is not expected along the East Coast at this time. There is only a little dynamic forcing with the Mid-Atlantic airmass, with very weak speed shear and limited moisture. Other than that, sit back and enjoy our seasonal temps as a Death Ridge takes hold of the eastern half of the U.S. Onshore flow will continue through next week, with a subtropical low pressure system possibly making an appearance along the Coast.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 16-22
Abbreviated discussion this week (highlights only) due to a very odd weekend schedule (see: storm chasing). I may update with the full discussion later on.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
14 May 2010 Storm Chasing Pictures
Went out storm chasing with Jason Foster on the 14th in Virginia, mostly along I-81, and grabbed some shots:
View the full album
View the full album
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 12-14
I wanted to add something to the site, so I figured I could post severe risks with storm systems as they pass through the Mid-Atlantic region. Here is the first installment:
Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.
This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.
Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.
This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 9-15
Highlights:
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 2-8
Highlights:
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
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