What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 9-15

Highlights:

Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast

Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.

Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.

The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.

-----
Discussion:

Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.

The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.

A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.

As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.