Monday, February 15, 2010
In Maryland Now...
Been busy with moving and getting ready for my new job, which starts tonight. I wasn't able to do an in-depth forecast for the Tu/Wed East Coast storm because of this, which was a bit disappointing. Big flakes of snow are starting to fall at the moment here in the D.C. area, but only about 2-4 inches of snow is expected. Parts of New England could see good snow accumulations from this system, and I may make a storm forecast later today. Nothing big is in the works at the moment for severe weather, but I'll keep an eye out for it.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Feb. 4-6 Soaker System
NOTE: Forecast is for one storm system, and does not include the impacts of other storms in the US during the same time period.
Another soaker is taking form in the models... which are all in excellent agreement with the timing and positioning of the system at this time. Two pockets of UL energy - one from the Pacific NW and one from northern Mexico - will interact over the South Central US to generate a significant low pressure system. The subtropical portion will draw in plenty of moisture to feed the system, and the Pac. NW portion will provide additional energy behind it, which will help to deepen the low and increase the amount of winter weather associated with this system.
Southern TX will have already received a good portion of rain on Feb. 3, and will receive additional moderate rain as the storm system takes form on Feb. 4. Cooler temps to the north will allow for mixed precipitation and snow in the Great Plains and along the eastern Rockies.
As this system develops and pushes eastward, the vast amount of moisture injected into the system will provide heavy rain across the SE, with mixed precipitation switching over to heavy snow in the Midwest. This swath of precip. will slide east into the Mid Atlantic as the storm moves off the coast.
The severe threat from this system is minimal. Most of the ML and UL air will be drawn in from the tropics, which will weaken the ML and UL lapse rates and hinder convection. Extensive cloud cover will keep surface temps low in most areas, further decreasing the risk of severe weather. However, some low-topped convection could be seen in parts of southern AL and GA and northern FL, which could result in isolated thunderstorms.
Another soaker is taking form in the models... which are all in excellent agreement with the timing and positioning of the system at this time. Two pockets of UL energy - one from the Pacific NW and one from northern Mexico - will interact over the South Central US to generate a significant low pressure system. The subtropical portion will draw in plenty of moisture to feed the system, and the Pac. NW portion will provide additional energy behind it, which will help to deepen the low and increase the amount of winter weather associated with this system.
Southern TX will have already received a good portion of rain on Feb. 3, and will receive additional moderate rain as the storm system takes form on Feb. 4. Cooler temps to the north will allow for mixed precipitation and snow in the Great Plains and along the eastern Rockies.
As this system develops and pushes eastward, the vast amount of moisture injected into the system will provide heavy rain across the SE, with mixed precipitation switching over to heavy snow in the Midwest. This swath of precip. will slide east into the Mid Atlantic as the storm moves off the coast.
The severe threat from this system is minimal. Most of the ML and UL air will be drawn in from the tropics, which will weaken the ML and UL lapse rates and hinder convection. Extensive cloud cover will keep surface temps low in most areas, further decreasing the risk of severe weather. However, some low-topped convection could be seen in parts of southern AL and GA and northern FL, which could result in isolated thunderstorms.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Jan 23-25 Verification
Verifications for the January 23-25 storm.
All SPC forecasts are from the Day 3 Outlook of Jan. 20-22. My forecast was made on the 20th (3-5 day outlook).
AGAINST THE SPC:
My TX/LA severe threat could have been cut down to 5% since nothing happened. There was a strong line of elevated storms that moved through the area, but since it was not surface-based, the severe winds did not reach the surface. The same deal happened in PA/NJ, in which a strong line of storms moved through the region, but they were not surface-based. All in all, a pretty good forecast compared to the SPC day 3 outlooks.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
The one NY report was for a mudslide, and not actually for damaging winds. Other than that, my Slight Risk encapsulated all of the severe reports, and my winter forecast was pretty good as well.
OVERALL:
4.5/5. Coverage was excellent, but was too extensive in a couple of areas. However, given the potential for severe weather in these areas, it was an excellent forecast.
All SPC forecasts are from the Day 3 Outlook of Jan. 20-22. My forecast was made on the 20th (3-5 day outlook).
AGAINST THE SPC:
My TX/LA severe threat could have been cut down to 5% since nothing happened. There was a strong line of elevated storms that moved through the area, but since it was not surface-based, the severe winds did not reach the surface. The same deal happened in PA/NJ, in which a strong line of storms moved through the region, but they were not surface-based. All in all, a pretty good forecast compared to the SPC day 3 outlooks.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
The one NY report was for a mudslide, and not actually for damaging winds. Other than that, my Slight Risk encapsulated all of the severe reports, and my winter forecast was pretty good as well.
OVERALL:
4.5/5. Coverage was excellent, but was too extensive in a couple of areas. However, given the potential for severe weather in these areas, it was an excellent forecast.
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