Monday, February 1, 2010

Jan 23-25 Verification

Verifications for the January 23-25 storm.

All SPC forecasts are from the Day 3 Outlook of Jan. 20-22. My forecast was made on the 20th (3-5 day outlook).











AGAINST THE SPC:
My TX/LA severe threat could have been cut down to 5% since nothing happened. There was a strong line of elevated storms that moved through the area, but since it was not surface-based, the severe winds did not reach the surface. The same deal happened in PA/NJ, in which a strong line of storms moved through the region, but they were not surface-based. All in all, a pretty good forecast compared to the SPC day 3 outlooks.

AGAINST THE REPORTS:
The one NY report was for a mudslide, and not actually for damaging winds. Other than that, my Slight Risk encapsulated all of the severe reports, and my winter forecast was pretty good as well.

OVERALL:
4.5/5. Coverage was excellent, but was too extensive in a couple of areas. However, given the potential for severe weather in these areas, it was an excellent forecast.

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