24 June 2010 Chase Pictures

A few video grabs of lightning:







Jason and I had the right target area today considering our departure time, but the storms that were moving 15-20 mph earlier in the day decided to move 45-50 mph by the time we got to them! We stayed a few miles south of this storm for about an hour before calling it, seeing as there was no way we could catch up with it, and the lightning display was over with. I'm glad we went, though, because of that last picture I got. Probably the best lightning shot this year.

22 June 2010 Chase Pictures

Picture time!

GRLevel3 radar of the tornado-producing cell, with our GPS location (my car clock is actually 4 minutes fast)


Wall cloud off of that cell (facing north from I-76)


The storm moved quickly to the southeast and outran us as we struggled to find good roads.

Western edge of the cell (facing east)... Check out that sick double-rainbow right at the surface!


Same spot as last image, facing northwest at fast-moving low-level features. This is some interesting non-rotational scud that was detached from the cloud base (but is pretty deceptive in this picture).


Heading back west on Rt. 1 after the chase... storm-induced accident.

22 June 2010 Chase - Southern PA and Northern MD

Jason Foster and I just got back from chasing... was about 4-5 mi south of the reported tornado in SE PA. We didn't see the rotation or tornado (we were on I-76), but we did see the nice wall cloud that spawned it. Note that the TOR producer was not actually the cell that got TOR warned later on :P Pics and screen grabs coming soon.

Things we experienced today:
- Beautiful wall cloud.
- Two double rainbows, one of which was literally right at the ground.
- Dime sized and maybe a couple nickel sized hail (as we "core punched" the second cell that formed to our south).
- Estimated 60-65 mph wind gusts (as we were standing outside filming the tornadic storm).
- A large tree down in Cecil County, MD blocking a road just south of Rt. 1 (which we reported).
- Vivid CG lightning from three different cells.

We drove through an area with a pretty bad road network, especially during "rush hour," so we weren't able to catch up to the TOR warned southern cell after an hour of pursuit. All in all, we did see a lot of interesting things, got on the only chaseable tornadic cell of the day (so far), so it turned out to be a pretty good chase day.

What To Watch Fore(cast) - June 20-26

Better late than never... trying to get back on schedule. My birthday was this weekend! High-fives all around.

Highlights:

Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.

Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.

Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.

First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.

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Discussion:

A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.

The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:

KATL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
 MON 21| TUE 22| WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28 CLIMO
X/N  95| 73  93| 72  92| 72  93| 74  92| 74  93| 74  93| 74  89 68 88
P24    |     17|     26|     16|     33|     23|     33|     39    33
CLD  CL| CL  PC| CL  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  OV| PC  OV

Besides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!

While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.

The Midwest is Stealing My Storms!

While the Midwest remains quite active in severe weather and MCS activity, the Mid-Atlantic has been struggling to get severe weather over the past week, especially areas east of the Appalachians. Tuesday and Wednesday (but mainly Wednesday) will provide more severe weather opportunities this week, but Thu-Sat is looking warm and dry. On the plus side, the three days of warm, dry weather is what I need to finish my deck! Only been waiting over two months for a prolonged period of hot and dry weather... we have been getting little shots of rain and damp air at least twice a week!

You might be wondering, "What happened to THIS week's What to Watch Fore(cast)?" Well, I worked a little over 60 hours over the past week, including 13 hours from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. I'm tired. Also, other things in life. Taking SVRWX in for repairs tomorrow morning, so hopefully the backup chase vehicle will be 100% in time for storms! The primary chase vehicle, owned by Jason Foster, is in the process of getting significant repairs. At least all this is happening during a lull in the severe weather, otherwise we'd be kicking ourselves.

June 5-6 Storm Photos

6/5/10: Southwest PA and Northern WV... Got on a TOR-warned cell that didn't produce for me, but it was a fun day nonetheless. It was car SVRWX's first chase ever, mostly because Jason Foster's vehicle was in need of repair at the time.







6/6/10: IMBY chasing in Montgomery Village, MD. Early afternoon severe storm pushed in from the west and gave me a vivid lightning display, with winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy downpours. It produced small hail just to our south.

Severe Weather Continues...

After chasing 4 of the last 5 days (including this afternoon), not too much has been seen. I'll post pictures and recaps tomorrow after work. There will be no What to Watch Fore(cast) today since I have to get everything ready for chasing.

Chasing Opportunity Tomorrow and Over the Weekend

A slow-moving cold front will work its way into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, which will trigger severe weather Thursday for most of the Mid-Atlantic. Shear looks decent, LL lapse rates are superb, CAPE is good for the area, there's plenty of moisture, and some UL dynamics will be enough to trigger a good amount of severe weather, including an isolated tornado or two (or five?). I anticipate a good chasing day in Southern PA and Northern MD as storms cluster and form loose lines as they move eastward at 20-35 mph.



As the front stalls out of the region this weekend, a series of disturbances will be passing through in the upcoming week. These disturbances will give the Mid-Atlantic several more looks at severe weather, the first of which will be towards the end of the weekend.