What To Watch Fore(cast) - June 20-26

Better late than never... trying to get back on schedule. My birthday was this weekend! High-fives all around.

Highlights:

Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.

Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.

Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.

First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.

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Discussion:

A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.

The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:

KATL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
 MON 21| TUE 22| WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28 CLIMO
X/N  95| 73  93| 72  92| 72  93| 74  92| 74  93| 74  93| 74  89 68 88
P24    |     17|     26|     16|     33|     23|     33|     39    33
CLD  CL| CL  PC| CL  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  OV| PC  OV

Besides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!

While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.