Highlights:
Stagnant Southeast - High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the Southeast in the warmer weather, with a chance of showers and storms every day.
Wet in the East - A series of slow-moving systems will keep the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast under the risk for rain and thunderstorms through most of the week.
High and dry in the West - A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep most of the West warm and dry throughout the week. Pop-up showers and storms will continue along the southern Rockies.
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Discussion:
Low pressure systems will continue to track along the northern U.S. and southern Canada this week as two ridges of high pressure, one in the West and one in the Southeast, keep things warm for most of the country. The weather pattern across the nation will be very slow to chance this week as jet activity remains relatively quiet and UL energy stays north of the U.S.
The Tropics should be quiet this week (and next week), but there's always the slight possibility of something popping up that none of the models have been able to pick up on yet.
tl;dr - What you see Monday is likely what you'll see the next day, and the next day, and the next, etc. etc.
Showing posts with label what to watch fore(cast). Show all posts
Showing posts with label what to watch fore(cast). Show all posts
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - July 4-10
Highlights:
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
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Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Hot, hot, hot! - The Mid-Atlantic and eastern Midwest will be subject to high heat this week, with multiple triple-digit days in the forecast.
The Tropics gets busy - In the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are showing areas of interest to watch for storm development as we enter the second month of the hurricane season.
Western warm up - An area of high pressure will persist over the West this week, bringing warmer temperatures into the region
Rainy Mid-Country - The Plains and Midwest will be getting plenty of rain this week, with local flooding possible.
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Discussion:
Another heat wave will be affecting the Mid-Atlantic states this week, with several days of upper 90s and possible 100s in the line-up in the D.C. area. Along with the heat, it will also be pretty dry in the Mid-Atlantic, which will only act to exacerbate the drought problem in the southern Mid-Atlantic. There may be some heat relief during the second half of the week as a cut-off low in the North Atlantic becomes sub-tropical and retrogrades back into the East Coast. The ultimate speed and position of this system will be impacted by a cold front working its way across the U.S., which should reach the East Coast over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center will be busy tracking the Tropics this week as weak shear provides a more favorable environment for the formation of tropical systems. As the record warm sea surface temperatures links up with the calmer atmosphere, tropical systems will be able to spin-up rather quickly, and it appears as though our hurricane season could pick up momentum early as we begin the second month of the season.
A formidable ridge will be keeping most of the West warm and dry this week, which will help build a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the country. This will enable several days of wet weather to impact the Plains and the Midwest, with local flooding possible in areas with more persistent thunderstorms. The UL trough will push east during the second half of the week, but another system will dive south from western Canada and will reinforce the trough in the northern Plains over the weekend.
Monday, June 21, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - June 20-26
Better late than never... trying to get back on schedule. My birthday was this weekend! High-fives all around.
Highlights:
Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.
Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.
Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.
First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.
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Discussion:
A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.
The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:
Besides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!
While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.
Highlights:
Stormy in the Plains - The Northern and Central Plains will continue to get hit by daily severe weather through the first half of the week.
Severe weather moves east - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England could see several rounds of severe weather Tuesday through Thursday, with another shot of storms possible at the end of the week.
Southeast stays warm and wet - Southerly winds and humid conditions will keep the risk for pop-up showers and storms in the Southeast throughout the week.
First Atlantic tropical system in the forecast? - European models show tropical development in the Caribbean later this week.
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Discussion:
A trough-ridge pattern that has been surprisingly stagnant over the Continental U.S. over the last couple of weeks is showing a bit of change as several packets of UL energy are sent eastward along a stationary boundary that is draped over the Midwest and Northern Mid-Atlantic. This means there's the possibility for widespread severe weather 3-4 days in a row in the Northern and Central Plains and areas further east. The main swath of severe weather will hold in the Plains and Western Midwest through the first half of the week before shifting into the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic for the Tue-Thu timeframe. This could mean several days of storm chasing in Southern PA for yours truly.
The stubborn ridge that has kept the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in +5 to +8 temperature anomalies will keep the pattern rather stagnant in the Southeast, with the ever-so-fun HHH combo tacking on another week to its streak through Sunday and beyond. Persistence is rocking it big time in the Southeast... just check out the GFS weekly forecast for Altanta, GA:
KATL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE
MON 21| TUE 22| WED 23| THU 24| FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28 CLIMO
X/N 95| 73 93| 72 92| 72 93| 74 92| 74 93| 74 93| 74 89 68 88
P24 | 17| 26| 16| 33| 23| 33| 39 33
CLD CL| CL PC| CL PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC OV| PC OVBesides that 89 high on Monday, it's a pretty consistent forecast. That 89 could just be the GFS trying to trend towards climo, as it often does. Makes it easy to forecast, at least!
While the GFS is barely flirting with the idea, the ECMWF has consistently shown some tropical development in the Caribbean over the weekend, which is on track to push into the Gulf early next week. I'll definitely be watching this development, as it could wreak havoc on the BP oil spill cleanup effort if the storm ends up tracking right through the spill area. I may make a mid-week update if there's any significant developments regarding this system.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 30 - June 5
Highlights:
Hot and wet in the East - The eastern third of the nation will be seeing warm and wet weather this week as unstable air lingers over the region.
Pacific Northwest finally moving into summer? - After a few more rounds of wet weather this week, this weekend could mark the start of drier, more summer-like weather in the Pac. Northwest.
The onset of cooler weather - The Midwest and Northeast may see the start of a period of below-normal temperatures later this week.
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Discussion:
The first week of June marks the beginning of an active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with several storm systems moving through the region over the next 7-8 days. These systems will keep the air relatively unstable throughout the eastern third of the nation, which will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms all week. More organized and more severe storms will be possible along the onslaught of cold fronts that will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which means plenty of opportunities to go chasing!
Following these storms will be increasingly cooler air, which appears to favor sitting over the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, and it looks like it is setting up for an extended stay as the cooler temperatures extend into next week. A long wave upper-level trough is attempting to settle into these areas in the long range, as an active storm track appears to continually reinforce the trough.
As the weather pattern begins to shift from what we have been seeing for the past several months (cool in the west, warm in the east), the change in the ridge/trough pattern in the east will mean closer to normal temperatures in the Western U.S., which will help keep storm systems further north and out of the Pacific Northwest. After a couple more systems push through, the Pac. NW will see the beginning of drier and warmer weather as summer tries to push into the region.
Hot and wet in the East - The eastern third of the nation will be seeing warm and wet weather this week as unstable air lingers over the region.
Pacific Northwest finally moving into summer? - After a few more rounds of wet weather this week, this weekend could mark the start of drier, more summer-like weather in the Pac. Northwest.
The onset of cooler weather - The Midwest and Northeast may see the start of a period of below-normal temperatures later this week.
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Discussion:
The first week of June marks the beginning of an active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with several storm systems moving through the region over the next 7-8 days. These systems will keep the air relatively unstable throughout the eastern third of the nation, which will initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms all week. More organized and more severe storms will be possible along the onslaught of cold fronts that will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which means plenty of opportunities to go chasing!
Following these storms will be increasingly cooler air, which appears to favor sitting over the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, and it looks like it is setting up for an extended stay as the cooler temperatures extend into next week. A long wave upper-level trough is attempting to settle into these areas in the long range, as an active storm track appears to continually reinforce the trough.
As the weather pattern begins to shift from what we have been seeing for the past several months (cool in the west, warm in the east), the change in the ridge/trough pattern in the east will mean closer to normal temperatures in the Western U.S., which will help keep storm systems further north and out of the Pacific Northwest. After a couple more systems push through, the Pac. NW will see the beginning of drier and warmer weather as summer tries to push into the region.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 16-22
Abbreviated discussion this week (highlights only) due to a very odd weekend schedule (see: storm chasing). I may update with the full discussion later on.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
Highlights:
Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.
Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.
Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.
Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 9-15
Highlights:
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast
Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.
Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.
The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.
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Discussion:
Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.
A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.
As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 2-8
Highlights:
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.
The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.
Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.
Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.
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Discussion:
The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.
Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.
Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.
Monday, April 26, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 25 - May 1
Late update, but with good reason... had a wedding to go to, which included 14 hours of travel and only 2 hours off from work. Local severe weather kept me occupied this past evening before I had to head into work. Anyway...
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
Highlights:
Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.
Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.
Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.
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Discussion:
Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.
This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.
As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.
Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 18-24
Highlights:
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.
Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.
Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.
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Discussion:
An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.
The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.
A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.
Monday, April 12, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 11-17
Late update... forgot to do it amongst all of the chores I was doing over the weekend. Spring cleaning is fun!
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Highlights:
Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.
All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.
Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.
Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
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Discussion:
An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.
A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.
The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 4-10
Highlights:
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.
Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.
Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.
A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.
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Discussion:
A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.
A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 28 - Apr. 3
Highlights:
Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.
Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.
Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.
Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.
Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread QPF in the 4-8" range.
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Discussion:
A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.
Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.
In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.
Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.
However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.
Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.
Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.
Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.
Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.
Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread QPF in the 4-8" range.
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Discussion:
A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.
Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.
In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.
Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.
However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 21-27
Highlights:
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
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Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
A tale of two tracks: The Northern and Southern US are divided by two different storm tracks through most of the week. This will hinder the development of a significant storm system until the end of the week, when the southern track will diminish and give way to a potential Midwest/Mid Atlantic Soaker System over the weekend. As a result, minimal severe weather is expected this week, as energy divided cannot stand.
Winter un-canceled up north: Snowfall is expected two or three times this week in the Midwest and Northeast as a series of low pressure systems move through the region.
The eastern half of the country will return to near-normal temperatures this week, with a ridge of high pressure creating above average temperatures across a large portion of the western half of the country. Areas with sunny skies will continue to be a few degrees warmer than the model forecasts due to the lack of vegetation across the country.
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Discussion:
The warm, sunny streak in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will be coming to an end over the next couple of days as a low pressure system currently in the middle of the country slowly progresses north and east. Significant snowfall behind this storm will diminish as the storm cuts off and loses it's source of cold air. Thunderstorms will push through the Southeast on Sunday and will continue into the Mid Atlantic Monday. Isolated areas of significant rainfall are possible throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, which could lead to minor flooding. The higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians could see several inches of snow accumulation Monday, with significant snowfall of 6-12 inches possible across northern New England.
A weak system will cut across the Desert Southwest Monday, which will slowly drift eastward across the southern half of the country. This system will get a sliver of energy from the north, but not enough to make a significant storm. It will bring rain and garden-variety thunderstorms into the Southern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will lose it's intensity as it progresses eastward into the Southeast, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected on Friday.
Up north, a low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, which will skirt along the US/Canada border and arrive in Eastern Canada Wednesday. Nothing significant is expected to happen with this storm. Another low pressure system is expected to form from the trailing front, which could bring snow showers into the Midwest and Northeast Thursday and Friday.
Another Pacific Northwest system will work it's way over the US Thursday, which will drop south into the Central Plains Saturday and move into the Midwest over the weekend. This storm is showing potential for rain and isolated thunderstorms in the Southeast, moderate rainfall in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and will work with a cut-off low in Canada to provide moderate snowfall across the northern Midwest and Northeast.
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