What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 11-17

Late update... forgot to do it amongst all of the chores I was doing over the weekend. Spring cleaning is fun!

Highlights:

Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.

All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.

Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.

Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

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Discussion:

An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.

A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.

The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.