What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 2-8

Highlights:

Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.

The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.

Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.

Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.

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Discussion:

The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.

Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.

Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.