Mid-Atlantic Discussion: May 12-14

I wanted to add something to the site, so I figured I could post severe risks with storm systems as they pass through the Mid-Atlantic region. Here is the first installment:

Hit-and-miss pop-up storms will be the main thing to watch out for over the next few days, with daytime destabilization (if we can get rid of the BKN/OVC) playing the main role as ML and UL lapse rates struggle to do better than moist-adiabatic. ML and UL wind shear will also be weak as the Mid-Atlantic fails to get any jet action, which will keep dynamic forcing on the low end. Hail will be the biggest threat over the next few days as individual cells fire across the region, with multicell structures possible in areas with sustained instability. Isolated tornadoes will be possible west of the Appalachians, with a near-0% chance of tornadoes along the coast as coastal air diminishes the severe threat even further.

This does not include the existing MCS that is rolling through the region right now. Obviously that is operating on a different convective mode as it runs eastward along the stationary boundary. It was not included because it did not initiate within the forecast region.