All SPC verifications will be as close to when I made my original forecasts. Originally done on the 18th, my forecast was a 3-5 day forecast, which gave the SPC a slight advantage since their forecast for the 21st is one day fresher and the 22nd is two days fresher.
NOTE: I only forecasted for the Southeast, so ignore the reports I missed out west.
AGAINST THE REPORTS:
I dropped the ball on the TX/OK/LA storms, which turned out to be the most critical reports of the storm. I did not anticipate the storm system to come together as early and as far west as it did, which is why my severe risk did not include these reports. Subsequent analyses would have fixed this error, but as I was only doing one forecast, this is what I've got. Besides one report in KY, I was able to grab the northern extent of the reports.
AGAINST THE SPC:
The SPC beat me with the TX/LA storms, and was right about the lower risk in SC. However, their northern extent of of the risk area was off quite a bit. They remedied this by the Day 1 Outlook, but I beat them to the punch.
OVERALL:
I'd give the overall rating of my forecast a 3/5. It encompassed most of the reports, but it missed the main event, and could have been more concise along the East Coast.
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