This is the first of hopefully many weather discussions written by yours truly. To keep myself updating more often, I will not include images, as they take extra time to put on the site, and I do not want to deal with that every thread.
These posts will contain technical discussions, with some words abridged on a consistent basis, such as low/mid/upper level, weather indices, and geographic regions.
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JANUARY 20-22, 2010
SOUTHEAST SOAKER AND SEVERE THREAT
Strong dynamics will come together over eastern TX and LA late on the 20th to produce widespread heavy precipitation over parts of the SE on the 21st and part of the 22nd. A strong LL jet will inject moisture into the SE ahead of a small-but-significant area of ML vorticity. The system's development on the morning of the 21st will be brief, but significant. Strong UL divergence created by the UL jet, along with a negatively-tilted trough axis, will complete the formula for strong dynamics over the SE.
Aiding the chance for severe weather across the SE will be the strong ML and UL lapse rates that will manifest as the dry UL air associated with the Mexican Plateau is advected over the SE. However, the prefrontal thermodynamic instability will be limited by precip. and lingering clouds that will form during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which will weaken the lapse rates out ahead of the area of greatest dynamic lift.
So what does this mean for the SE? Extensive cloudcover will keep severe weather damped, but areas with clearer conditions and more favorable LL and ML lapse rates could see rapidly-developing storms with the potential for damaging hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The 21st will most likely have a Slight Risk for severe weather, extending from MS to FL and northward through TN west of the Appalachians and through SC. The northward extent of the severe weather will be highly dependent upon the strength of the LL jet.
Ample moisture, along with the strong dynamics, will create broad areas of 1-2" of rain across the SE, with localized rainfall approaching 6" in areas that are already struggling with the high rainfall amounts of recent months.
UPDATE:
Added a picture for the severe description:
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